Indicator
What a sequential exhaustion count is, and how to read it on SPY, QQQ and IBIT
Counts consecutive bars that meet a strict price-comparison rule. A completed count marks a trend that has run long enough to be statistically stretched. It measures exhaustion, not timing.
What it currently reads
| Index | Daily | Weekly | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Upside exhaustion, count 13 (perfected), completed 2026-10-02, 21 bars ago · a downside count of 2 is running (began 2026-10-30) | Upside exhaustion, count 13 (perfected), completed 2026-05-24, 24 bars ago · a downside count of 3 is running (began 2026-10-25) | Upside exhaustion, count 9 (perfected), completed 2026-02-28, 9 bars ago · an upside count of 8 is running (began 2026-04-30) |
| QQQ | Downside exhaustion, count 9 (unperfected), completed 2026-10-20, 9 bars ago · a downside count of 2 is running (began 2026-10-30) | Downside exhaustion, count 9 (perfected), completed 2026-04-05, 31 bars ago · a downside count of 4 is running (began 2026-10-18) | Upside exhaustion, count 13 (perfected), completed 2026-06-30, 5 bars ago · a downside count of 2 is running (began 2026-10-31) |
| IBIT | Upside exhaustion, count 13 (perfected), completed 2026-10-29, 2 bars ago · a downside count of 3 is running (began 2026-10-29) | Upside exhaustion, count 9 (unperfected), completed 2026-10-18, 3 bars ago · a downside count of 3 is running (began 2026-10-25) | Downside exhaustion, count 9 (perfected), completed 2026-07-31, 4 bars ago · an upside count of 4 is running (began 2026-08-31) |
Readings from the 2026-11-02 data edition, recomputed on every build of this page.
How to read it
A reading is a description of what has already happened in the price and volume series, on the timeframe it was computed on. It is not a forecast, and the same measure on the daily chart answers a different question from the same measure on the monthly — which is why all three are printed separately above rather than averaged into one number.
The sequential exhaustion count is one measure in a standing catalogue. On its own it says one thing about one series. What a breakdown adds is the rest of the catalogue read the same way on the same ticker at the same data edition, with every measure printed and every disagreement between them shown rather than resolved.
Where this one sits in a breakdown
The full catalogue, with the plain-English meaning of every measure in it, is on the indicator glossary. A complete worked stock analysis with support and resistance levels is the free monthly SPY and Bitcoin breakdowns, sent when you enter your email. The free monthly SPY breakdown runs the whole catalogue on SPY every month and is published in full.
To have a full breakdown run on tickers you name, see pricing. How each reading is computed and how the count is assembled is on method.
Free monthly reports
The SPY and Bitcoin monthly breakdowns, at no cost
Once a month we run the same breakdown we sell on SPY and on Bitcoin, and publish both in full. Every indicator reading on daily, weekly and monthly, what each one reads right now, and the places they contradict each other. The current SPY edition is the 36-reading document below.
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